2025 Kentucky Derby horses, futures, odds, date, preview: Expert who hit 11 Derby-Oaks Doubles discloses picks (2025)

Horses like Journalism (3-1), Sandman (8-1) and Sovereignty (8-1) top the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds, but a longshot could take center stage based on Kentucky Derby history. Tappan Street is 10-1 to utilize in your 2025 Kentucky Derby bets coming off winning the Florida Derby. That race has produced 25 Kentucky Derby winners, making it the most productive prep race on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. Tappan Street also has pedigree on his side since he's the son of Into Mischief, who sired two Kentucky Derby winners, Authentic (2020) and Mandaloun (2021).

It has been seven years since the morning-line favorite won "The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports," so 2025 Kentucky Derby horses like Tappan Street could deserve consideration. The 151st Kentucky Derby takes place on Saturday, May 3 from Churchill Downs in Louisville, which happens to be the hometown of Tappan Street's trainer, Brad Cox. Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine's elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.

A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 11 times in the last 16 years. He also predicted the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last seven years and called 10 of the last 20 Preakness winners, including in 2023, when he hit the winner, exacta, trifecta and superfecta, as well as the trifecta in 2024. Anyone who has followed him on those picks is up huge.

Now, with the 2025 Kentucky Derby futures already on the board, Demling is sharing his picks and 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.

Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions

One of Demling's surprising 2025 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Rodriguez, even though he's one of the favorites. In fact, Demling says Rodriguez doesn't even hit the board in his 2025 Kentucky Derby projections. Rodriguez, trained by Bob Baffert, can make history for the legendary trainer. Baffert is tied with Ben Jones for the most Kentucky Derby victories (six). But Baffert has only won three of the last 22 Kentucky Derbys, and he trained the favorite in two of those victories. Rodriguez currently has 10-1 odds and is unlikely to climb all the way to the favorite position over the next few weeks.

Rodriguez has run against the Kentucky Derby favorite though, finishing third behind Journalism at the 2025 San Felipe on March 1. The colt has two wins over five career races, but he's never run at Churchill Downs or in a race higher than a Grade II stakes. Baffert's name association with Rodriguez will drive some 2025 Kentucky Derby bets, which could shorten the odds before the Kentucky Derby 2025 takes off, and Rodriguez doesn't have the dominance of previous Baffert winners like Justify and American Pharoah, who both became Triple Crown winners.See which other 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.

Another stunner: Demling is high on Luxor Cafe, even though he is a 15-1 longshot in the latest Kentucky Derby odds 2025. The Noriyuki Hori-trained horse qualified for the Derby via the Japan prep races as he won both the Hyacinth Stakes and Fukuryu Stakes. He's undefeated (3-0) as a 3-year-old and has won four straight starts overall. While Hori will be a newcomer to the Kentucky Derby, Luxor Cafe's pedigree is unparalleled and stretches back many generations.

He's the son of Authentic, who not only won the 2015 Triple Crown but also became the first modern Grand Slam champion by also winning the Breeders' Cup Classic. Luxor Cafe's dam, Mary's Follies, was also a Graded Stakes winner in 2009, while the Derby contender's grandparents additionally have quite the resumes. Both granddam, More Than Ready, and grandsire, Pioneerof the Nile, were G1 winners, with the latter finishing runner-up in the 2009 Kentucky Derby. Winning is in Luxor Cafe's blood, and he's a longshot to keep in mind with 2025 Kentucky Derby bets.See which other horses to back at SportsLine.

How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, bets

Demling is especially high on a double-digit longshot who "has a legit shot."Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2025 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.

Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed 11 Derby-Oaks doubles.

2025 Kentucky Derby odds, futures