Andrew Vaughn at center of White Sox's non-tender debate (2024)

Real Sox Machineheads know that the Offseason Plan Project can’t begin in earnest until MLB Trade Rumors slaps salary projections for the White Sox’s arbitration-eligible players.

Stealing the thunder of the first night of postseason baseball, here they are:

• Andrew Vaughn: $6.4M
• Nicky Lopez: $5.1M
• Garrett Crochet: $2.9M
• Gavin Sheets: $2.6M
• Enyel De Los Santos: $1.7M
• Jimmy Lambert: $1.2M
• Justin Anderson: $1.1M
• Steven Wilson: $1M
• Matt Foster: $900,000

Chris Flexen would be part of this group based on pure MLB service time, but a source told James his contract was structured to make him a free agent at the end of the 2024 season.

Even without him, it’s a fascinating group, because there’s an argument for non-tendering everybody but Crochet. Such a scorched-earth approach doesn’t seem likely — Anderson led the 2024 White Sox in appearances, to name one reliever who could survive a bullpen redraw — but when a team loses 121 games and forecasts a significant reduction in payroll, all options are basically on the table.

And the biggest discussion starts at the top.

Andrew Vaughn enjoyed his first major salary bump last season, earning $3.25 million in his first arb year. He hadn’t built the most exciting profile, but there were signs of development. He was healthy enough to top 600 plate appearances and 20 homers for the first time, and abandoning the outfield stabilized his defensive value. More hard-earned progress wasn’t out of the question, but if his salary was going to double from here, it became more vital to his continued employment.

Instead, he lost a little ground:

Set aside the emotional baggage from being the No. 3 overall pick, and there’s still a case for rostering Vaughn the player, especially on a team that only has two other average-or-better hitters. He posts every day and he can lift the ball, putting him in position to go on the occasional hot streak, and that’s more than most of his teammates can say. You might also be able to shave a little bit off the MLBTR projection, because its system pegged him at $3.7 million for 2024.

Even accounting for a discount, there’s just less and less of a reason to commit to Vaughn once his salary crosses $5 million, because first basemen with comparable bats can be found for comparable commitments. Two of them signed one-year deals this past winter after the non-tender deadline, and will be free agents once again:

• Andrew Vaughn: .249/.297/.402, 19 HR, 70 RBI over 619 PA
• Carlos Santana: .238/.328/.420, 23 HR, 71 RBI over 594 PA
• Rowdy Tellez: .243/.299/.392, 13 HR, 56 RBI over 421 PA

Santana signed a one-year, $5.25 million deal with the Twins, while Tellez signed for $3.2 million with the Pirates. The investment in Santana paid off, because he provided above-average hitting and Gold Glove-caliber work at first base, and came one crucial step closer to completing a full tour of the AL Central. Conversely, the investment in Tellez would’ve been forgettable had the Pirates not cut him four plate appearances short of a $200,000 bonus.

This is the territory that Vaughn now occupies, where value is in the eye of the beholder and more contingent upon roster composition than ever before. If a team thinks there’s more to mine out of Vaughn’s approach in his peak years, he’s probably worth a shot at the right price. If a team sees him hitting his ceiling due to limited bat speed, limited physicality, little defensive value and nothing on the basepaths, they might prioritize the opportunity cost of exploring other options, even if those options aren’t exactly clear. Vaughn’s additional year of team control doesn’t really factor in, because if he’s already a debate to retain at $6 million, teams aren’t going to be lining up for the privilege of paying him $9 million or more in 2026 without a surprising surge in between.

In the White Sox’s case, they don’t have an heir apparent for Vaughn, but they do have Miguel Vargas and Bryan Ramos trying to get plate appearances at the same position, Lenyn Sosa coming off a .374/.398/.566 performance in September before heading to Venezuela for winter ball, and a Tim Elko who hasn’t yet removed himself from the running in Charlotte. Individually, none of those options are terribly exciting, but there’s also the possibility that they add help from the outside, be it in a trade or free agency.

Ultimately, the question is simple, even if it can’t be answered in a definitive fashion: If Vaughn now costs more than $6 million, does freeing up plate appearances at first base create a better chance of generating value? Producing an average bat for the league minimum is easier said than done, especially for the White Sox. Then again, when a team loses 121 games, it’s much, much more difficult to consider any everyday player a difference-maker.